A partial government shutdown is just a few hours away as President Trump and lawmakers continue to negotiate a deal to fund a portion of government operations through the holidays. If the negotiations fail, the federal government would experience its third shutdown this year.Earlier on Friday, Trump reaffirmed his demand for $5 billion to fund the construction of a border wall in the Southwest. Trump set a combative tone with an early tweet:
Trump met with GOP lawmakers during the day and the situation was described as “very, very fluid” by Politico’s Jake Sherman.Here’s where things stand on late Friday afternoon:The House passed its own funding bill: House Republicans passed a bill Thursday night that would give Trump $5.7 billion for wall construction, as well as $7.8 billion for disaster relief. The 217-185 party-line vote was hailed by Republicans as a rebuke to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who told the president last week that such a bill couldn’t pass. Even so, the bill is likely going nowhere in the Senate. Shifting the blame: Although he said earlier that he would take the blame for any shutdown – “I am proud to shut down the government for border security,” Trump told Democratic leaders, “I will take the mantle. I will shut it down, I’m not going to blame you for it.” – President Trump reversed course Friday, tweeting, “The Democrats now own the shutdown!”It could last a while: President Trump warned that “there will be a shutdown that will last for a very long time” if he doesn’t get the $5 billion he has demanded for the border wall. Chris Krueger of Cowen Research Group said Friday that if the government does partially shut down, “it is very hard to see how it would reopen before at least January 3” given the absence of lawmakers during the holiday. And even then, Trump will have to deal with a Democratic-controlled House, which will likely send him a funding bill that lacks money for the wall. “This shutdown could go on for a long time,” Kruger wrote in a note to clients.But a compromise could be in the works: Lawmakers and administration officials were reportedly discussing a compromise bill on Friday afternoon that would fund the government and provide $1.6 billion for border security – which sounds a lot like a deal that was being considered several weeks ago. “So, it looks like this could end up at 1.6 for border security. Which is ….. exactly where it started,” Politico’s Sherman tweeted.
What Happens if There’s a ShutdownParts of the federal government were preparing to shut down at midnight on Friday as negotiations between President Trump and lawmakers continued.Much of the government is already funded through the end of the fiscal year in September, thanks to five bills passed earlier this year that cover about $900 billion of the $1.2 trillion in operating expenses for federal agencies. Departments that would be unaffected by a shutdown include Defense, Labor, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs and Health and Human Services. About two-thirds of the federal workforce is also fully funded. Mandatory spending will be unaffected, so Social Security and Medicare payments should continue without interruption.Here’s a rundown on the parts of the federal government that would be affected:* Nine federal departments and several dozen independent agencies will close up shop, including:Department of the TreasuryDepartment of AgricultureHomeland Security DepartmentDepartment of the InteriorDepartment of StateDepartment of Housing and Urban DevelopmentDepartment of TransportationDepartment of CommerceDepartment of JusticePeace CorpsGeneral Services AdministrationSmall Business Administration* More than 420,000 federal employees will work without pay, though they likely will be paid once the government reopens. That includes:41,000 federal law enforcement and correctional officers from the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Agency, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives53,000 Transportation Security Administration employees42,000 Coast Guard employeesAs many as 54,000 Customs and Border Protection employees5,000 Forest Service firefighters3,600 National Weather Service forecasters* About 380,000 federal employees would be placed on temporary leave without pay, including:44,000 Forest and National Park Service employees41,000 Department of Commerce employees17,000 NASA employees52,000 IRS employees7,100 Housing and Urban Development employees18,300 Transportation Department employees* National Park Service employees likely will be furloughed, resulting in some park shutdowns. During the shutdown in January 2018, the agency asked employees to keep parks accessible as possible while still following the law. About one third of national parks closed completely, while others were open but lacked staff. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey said Friday that he will use state funds to keep the Grand Canyon open.* Thousands of government contractor employees will also miss work, and many will probably not receive back pay.* The shutdown’s effects aren’t limited to furloughs and service delays. According to William G. Resh and Susannah Bruns Ali, academics who study public policy, repeated shutdowns erode the government’s ability to function properly. “The fallout from a shutdown could substantially impact the long-term ability to retain, recruit, and manage the career civil service and contracted employees that comprise our national government,” Resh and Ali write. For more, see their analysis at Government Executive.
Chart of the DayDeficit spending is “the secret behind growth in Trump’s America,” saysBloomberg’s Ben Holland. Like Ronald Reagan before him, President Trump is goosing economic growth with government spending even as he cuts taxes. Debt has risen sharply, but fortunately the carrying costs have remained relatively low – for now. Here’s a look at how much spending by the federal government has contributed to elevated growth under Trump.

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