|Key Takeaway: The ceasefire in Greater Idlib remains tenuous. Recent force disposition indicates that the Syrian Regime is preparing for a renewed offensive in Southern Idlib Province should the ceasefire break down, but both the timing and likelihood of the offensive’s success remain uncertain and conditions dependent. A renewed regime offensive will require Russian support to sustainably seize territory from anti-Assad forces. However, Russian support will likely be contingent on a new negotiated agreement between Russia and Turkey, and the COVID-19 pandemic will likely delay such negotiations. The Syrian regime may attempt an offensive without Russian support despite the likelihood that it will be unsuccessful. Any regime offensive, whether Russian-backed or unilateral, will exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Greater Idlib.|
See the map and full report by ISW’s Syria Team here.
ISW SYRIA COVERAGE: Syria Situation Report: April 29 – May 12, 2020 (May 14, 2020)
PODCAST: Russia and Turkey Fail to Implement Ceasefire Deal in Idlib (March 27, 2020)
ANALYSIS: Turkey Commits to Idlib (March 18, 2020)
CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY: Jennifer Cafarella, The Crisis in Idlib (March 11, 2020)For press inquiries and requests for map files, please firstname.lastname@example.org or call ISW’s main line 202-293-5550.
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