Key Takeaway: The ceasefire in Greater Idlib remains tenuous. Recent force disposition indicates that the Syrian Regime is preparing for a renewed offensive in Southern Idlib Province should the ceasefire break down, but both the timing and likelihood of the offensive’s success remain uncertain and conditions dependent. A renewed regime offensive will require Russian support to sustainably seize territory from anti-Assad forces. However, Russian support will likely be contingent on a new negotiated agreement between Russia and Turkey, and the COVID-19 pandemic will likely delay such negotiations. The Syrian regime may attempt an offensive without Russian support despite the likelihood that it will be unsuccessful. Any regime offensive, whether Russian-backed or unilateral, will exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Greater Idlib.
See the map and full report by ISW’s Syria Team here.

Related Analysis

ISW SYRIA COVERAGE: Syria Situation Report: April 29 – May 12, 2020 (May 14, 2020)
PODCAST: Russia and Turkey Fail to Implement Ceasefire Deal in Idlib (March 27, 2020)
ANALYSIS: Turkey Commits to Idlib (March 18, 2020)
CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY: Jennifer Cafarella, The Crisis in Idlib (March 11, 2020)For press inquiries and requests for map files, please e-mailpress@understandingwar.org or call ISW’s main line 202-293-5550.
If you have been forwarded this e-mail and would like to begin receiving ISW’s publications directly, please sign up for the mailing list. ‌  ‌  ‌  ‌  ‌Visit the ISW WebsiteThe Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.
The Institute for the Study of War | 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515Washington, DC

Kazan- Kazan National Research Technical University Казанский национальный исследовательский технический университет имени А. Н. Туполева he graduated in Economics in 1982

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