Will Russia regret this war over Ukraine?

Russia going to regret their war against Ukraine?

Profile photo for Alex Mann

The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition- a war of economic attrition.

Russia is not a wealthy nation by any means. In fact, they are poorer than Italy, a substantially smaller nation. Russia does not have a massive economy with endless potential, they have a very restricted economy built to favor the elites.

Lots of people have died in this war so far. Russian losses approach 30,000 (killed or wounded) and about 20% of their deployed forces are gone. Russia has more people though and it can replace at least some of its losses.

However, what is going to break is the Russian economy.

  1. The ruble is dead. Nobody is buying rubles because nobody is exporting resources. This means the ruble is only stable thanks to Russia burning through its foreign currency reserves and restricting trading
  2. The Russian stock market is dead- it tanked 30% before it was closed. As of today, you can buy stocks but you cannot sell them
  3. Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Tiktok have cut off Russian access to their services
  4. Exxon, BP, and other oil companies have pulled out their investments, totaling 40 billion dollars
  5. Virtually every car and plane manufacturer has stopped production in Russia
  6. International banking systems have cut Russia off- restricting Russian access to their foreign currency accounts

Russia is making no money. Their exports have tanked to virtually nothing and they aren’t importing much either. This means the cost of basic goods like food has gone way up.

As the cost of living increases the ruble’s value remains the same. In reality, the ruble is useless and the only reason it has value is that Russia is propping it up.

At some point, the Russians will run out of foreign currency while the cost of living triple in price. Couple this with 10–20k dead Russians.

This will cause the Russian people to turn on Putin

Meanwhile, the Russian Oligarchs, who keep Putin in power, will turn on him over this war. They are losing tons of money every day and their business empires are crumbling. They will blame Putin for this.

Putin knows all of this. That’s why he suddenly changed war goals and stopped trying to take Kyiv. He knows he has to end this war quickly and he needs to be able to say he won.

Ukraine knows all of this too. They know the Russian economy will collapse as a result of this war. So Ukraine is unlikely to give in. After 2 months of insanely bloody fighting, Russia has taken Kherson (which is now contested) and they have almost taken Mauripol. After 2 more months of fighting maybe Russia takes 1 additional city- maybe.

Ukraine knows this and will bleed Russia out. They will inflict high losses on the Russian military and bide their time.

The Russian economy will collapse and just like WW1, the Russian people will turn on their fearless leader. Ukraine is merely waiting for this to happen.

Alex on Quora

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: