Will Russia regret this war over Ukraine?

Russia going to regret their war against Ukraine?

Profile photo for Alex Mann

The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition- a war of economic attrition.

Russia is not a wealthy nation by any means. In fact, they are poorer than Italy, a substantially smaller nation. Russia does not have a massive economy with endless potential, they have a very restricted economy built to favor the elites.

Lots of people have died in this war so far. Russian losses approach 30,000 (killed or wounded) and about 20% of their deployed forces are gone. Russia has more people though and it can replace at least some of its losses.

However, what is going to break is the Russian economy.

  1. The ruble is dead. Nobody is buying rubles because nobody is exporting resources. This means the ruble is only stable thanks to Russia burning through its foreign currency reserves and restricting trading
  2. The Russian stock market is dead- it tanked 30% before it was closed. As of today, you can buy stocks but you cannot sell them
  3. Google, Facebook, Twitter, and Tiktok have cut off Russian access to their services
  4. Exxon, BP, and other oil companies have pulled out their investments, totaling 40 billion dollars
  5. Virtually every car and plane manufacturer has stopped production in Russia
  6. International banking systems have cut Russia off- restricting Russian access to their foreign currency accounts

Russia is making no money. Their exports have tanked to virtually nothing and they aren’t importing much either. This means the cost of basic goods like food has gone way up.

As the cost of living increases the ruble’s value remains the same. In reality, the ruble is useless and the only reason it has value is that Russia is propping it up.

At some point, the Russians will run out of foreign currency while the cost of living triple in price. Couple this with 10–20k dead Russians.

This will cause the Russian people to turn on Putin

Meanwhile, the Russian Oligarchs, who keep Putin in power, will turn on him over this war. They are losing tons of money every day and their business empires are crumbling. They will blame Putin for this.

Putin knows all of this. That’s why he suddenly changed war goals and stopped trying to take Kyiv. He knows he has to end this war quickly and he needs to be able to say he won.

Ukraine knows all of this too. They know the Russian economy will collapse as a result of this war. So Ukraine is unlikely to give in. After 2 months of insanely bloody fighting, Russia has taken Kherson (which is now contested) and they have almost taken Mauripol. After 2 more months of fighting maybe Russia takes 1 additional city- maybe.

Ukraine knows this and will bleed Russia out. They will inflict high losses on the Russian military and bide their time.

The Russian economy will collapse and just like WW1, the Russian people will turn on their fearless leader. Ukraine is merely waiting for this to happen.

Alex on Quora

Sitrep Ukraine

Latest Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Inbox

ISW Publications

to me
5 hours ago

Details

ISW LogoRussian Offensive Campaign AssessmentKateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Phillipson, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. KaganJuly 29, 8:00 pm ETClick here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, on July 28. Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the attack and available visual evidence appears to support the Ukrainian claim more than the Russian, but ISW cannot independently assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it at this time. The Russian Defense Ministry asserted that Ukrainian forces deliberately struck the Olenivka pre-trial detention center holding Ukrainian POWs including Azov Regiment servicemen using Western-provided HIMARS, killing at least 40 and wounding 75 POWs. Kremlin-sponsored news outlet “RIA Novosti” published videos of the detention center, which showed fire damage but not the sort of damage that a HIMARS strike would likely have caused. RIA Novosti also released footage of HIMARS missile fragments but provided no evidence that the fragments were recovered at Olenivka. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Leonid Miroshnik claimed that Ukrainian forces struck the pre-detention center to eliminate the evidence of Ukrainian surrenders and prevent POWs from speaking out against the Ukrainian government.The Ukrainian General Staff said that Russian forces conducted the attack as a false flag operation to cover up Russian war crimes, disrupt the supply of Western weapons, discredit Ukrainian forces, and stoke social tensions within Ukrainian society. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a deliberate explosion occurred near the newly-constructed penal colony, to which Russian forces had transferred Ukrainian POWs a few days earlier. The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Ukrainian analysis of the damage to the building, intercepted phone conversations between Russian servicemen, the lack of reported shelling in Olenivka, and the absence of casualties among Russian personnel serving at the penal colony all point to a Russian deliberate “terrorist act” as the cause of the incident. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) accused Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin of ordering the “terrorist act” without consulting with the Russian Defense Ministry, to conceal the embezzlement of funds allocated for the maintenance of Ukrainian POWs before an official inspection on September 1. The Ukrainian Office of the General Prosecutor reported that the explosion killed at least 40 and wounded 130 Ukrainian POWs.ISW is unable to assess the nature of the event or the party responsible for it with any confidence at this time. We will update our assessment as more information becomes available.Key TakeawaysA kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the attack. Available visual evidence appears to support the Ukrainian claim more than the Russian, but ISW cannot independently assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it at this time.Ground fighting continued north of Kharkiv City with no significant change in control of terrain.Russian forces attempted a limited ground assault in Kherson Oblast and continued conducting combat operations without creating strike groups along occupied lines.Russian regional outlets reported the recruitment and establishment of an additional volunteer battalion in the Republic of Buryatia and the formation of a reserve battalion in Novosibirsk.Members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party traveled to occupied Ukrainian territories to promote an organization called “We Are Together with Russia,” likely to present the façade of a “grassroots” call for the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine and to prepare for falsified annexation referenda

Mohamed Morsi-victim of Egyptian injustice died having won an election with 51% of the vote.But he was unprepared for this destiny

Morsi’s first day in court, on November 4, 2013. Journalists weren’t allowed to bring cell phones, cameras, or audio recorders, but I still recall the sound of the deposed President’s voice.

He had refused to wear the traditional white garb of a prisoner, and he held his head high and repeatedly interrupted the proceedings.

Over and over, he bellowed, “Ana ra’is al-gomhoriyya! Ana ra’is al-gomhoriyya!” (“I am the President of the Republic! I am the President of the Republic!”) He was contained in a metal cage, and Egyptian journalists taunted him by shouting through the bars, “E‘dam, e‘dam!” (“Death penalty, death penalty!”)

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/mohamed-morsi-who-brought-the-muslim-brotherhood-to-the-egyptian-presidency

Russia says it’s staying in border regions Kherson etc

JOIN NOW

Sofrep
Sofrep
Sofrep User
Sofrep

SUBSCRIBE

NEWS

Featured Categories

GEAR

Professional

TEAM ROOM

SOFREP Member-Only Content

MEDIA

Spec Ops Videos & Podcast Network

SHOP

Tactical, Survival & EDC Gear

ADVERTISE

Partner with SOFREP

FOLLOW US

NEWS

Russia Shifts Focus to Targeting Weaker Regions in Ukraine

by SOFREP1 day ago

SHARE THIS:

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn

Bucha main street after Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Source: Oleksandr Ratushniak, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons)  https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bucha_main_street_after_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine_(3to4).jpg

Bucha main street after Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Source: Oleksandr Ratushniak, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bucha_main_street_after_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine_(3to4).jpg

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fsofrep.com%2Fnews%2Frussia-new-strat-weaker-regions%2F%3Futm_source%3Djeeng%26jem%3D719c059da3e5de1e4a32f0dc4a78c388&unitId=2900006240&userId=a4d9aaa7-5f60-4c4b-b5f1-723d58feb495&isLegacyBrowser=false&version=20220721_cd71ac90145f1c51024c8d44c2a5bb924955ccb4&useCFCDN=0&themeId=204

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia intends to maintain control over broader regions beyond eastern Ukraine, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces in the south, and other areas. He made these statements on state-controlled television and a news agency after Ukrainian troops fired a bridge essential to the supply of Russian forces operating in southern Ukraine.

Lavrov’s remarks on Russia’s plans to occupy more territories and the Ukrainian missile attack on the strategically vital bridge in the Kherson region hinted that the nearing five-month-long war could spread to other parts of the country.

Since Russian forces captured more of the two provinces that comprise Ukraine’s industrial Donbas region, Ukrainian officials planned an offensive to retake Russian-occupied areas in the south. The Ukrainian attack on the Dnipro River bridge also weakened Russia’s stronghold on the southern Kherson territory.

Interim Conclusion at August 2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people, the exile of millions more, and the leveling of entire cities, mainly in Russian-speaking regions in the east and southeast of Ukraine.

As a result, global energy and food prices have soared, including fears of starvation in less developed nations since Ukraine and Russia are both significant grain producers.

What Russia is now holding in Ukraine is not prime territory anymore but a near wasteland that they will have to rebuild almost from the ground up.

Tragic path taken by Egypt’s mass uprising

Morsi will be remembered, tragically, for the message that was delivered by Arab despots after his electoral victory – that democracy will not be tolerated, writes Mohamad Elmasry.

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/opinion/mohamed-morsi-didnt-die-he-was-killed

Crowdsignal blocks in WordPress

Welcome to this little demo page! We would love to introduce you to our set of Crowdsignal blocks and created this post for you, so that you can test and play with all of them right inside of your editor.

Preview this post if you would like to test the Crowdsignal blocks from your visitors perspective. Oh and please feel free to delete this draft post anytime, it was only created for demo purposes.

Overview

Let’s start with a quick overview of all our current blocks available in your WordPress editor. You can find all these blocks inside your block library via searching for their name or simply by searching “Crowdsignal”.

If you want to learn more about Crowdsignal please go to crowdsignal.com and join our little community all about feedback here.

Polls

We all have opinions! Curious about the opinion of your audience? Start asking with our poll block. It makes creating a poll as fast and simple as listing bullet points.

 You can choose between a button or a list style for your answer options, and you can fully customize the styling of the block.  By default the poll block will support your theme styling, but it’s up to you if you want to keep it. You can customize the style how you want, from font-family to border colours.

Just click in the poll below and start editing.

And everything else you expect from a Crowdsignal poll is also available — such as setting “single answer” or “multiple answer” choices, a customised confirmation message, poll timeframe, and avoidance of double voting.

Here is a short demo video for how to set up this block, not that you would need it 😉

Feedback Button

You might have spotted it already, in the bottom left corner of this page: Our Feedback button.

This is a floating button that lives above your site’s content. Always visible this button makes giving feedback easy! User can send you a message and provide their email address so you could can get back to them. Needless to say that you can fully customize the design and text, including the label of the button itself. Feel free to make it a “Contact me” or “Say hello” button or anything you like.

And yes, you can change its placement! You can put the button in any corner of your site. Just try it! Click in the feedback and start editing.

Don’t miss out on your customers’ feedback. Keep your door open anytime and place a feedback button on all your pages.

Voting

Sometimes we need just quick and fast feedback from our audience. A quick voting button might be all you need. Fully customizable of course.

There is already a “like” button at the end of a WordPress post that you can click to express satisfaction or agreement. But what if you want to ask readers their opinion on a subject in the middle of a post? Or what if you want to present several ideas and find out which one is the most popular? Wouldn’t it be great to ask readers what they think without having to leave the editor or switch to another service or plugin?

That’s what we thought! Say hello to our Voting Block:

It’s a simple block that adds two voting buttons—thumbs up, thumbs down—to your post wherever you want to place them. Customize the block in different sizes and colors, with or without a border, and with or without a visible vote counter. Put several in a single post, next to different ideas, to see how they stack up for readers. Make the block your own!

Applause

The Applause block is a simpler and more playful version of our Voting block. The main differences are users only being able to give positive feedback and encouraging users to “make as much noise as they want”. Meaning this block does not only allow repeated voting, but even encourages it.

Let your audience make some noise with a big round of applause.

Preview this post and try clapping yourself! It’s fun.

The block currently comes in three different sizes, and can be customised with a button-like styling, including a border, border radius and some colour customisation options.

Embed Surveys & Forms

So far we only talked about quick and fast ways to collect feedback or opinions from your audience. But what if you have many questions or want to create simple forms? You can do this with Crowdsignal, too! Create a survey or form on app.crowdsignal.com and embed it into your WordPress post or site. Similar like here:

The Crowdsignal survey above was embedded using our “Single question per page mode.” It’s exactly what it sounds like: In this mode, no matter how many questions your survey has, your respondents will always see one question at a time. Single Mode shines when you embed a survey into your website or blog post. Surveys with multiple questions can take up a lot of space, overwhelming your site. If you’re not sure whether your readers will take the survey at all, it disrupts the reading experience. With Single Mode, a survey  uses the same amount of space as an image, even a really long survey.

Once they provide an answer (or skip the question),  the next question loads. It has a playful  feel, like flipping through a slide show. Every answered question feels like progress.

You can choose between several transition options, and decide whether the questions should move from top to bottom, or from left to right.

Ready to create one? Here’s how:

– Go to app.crowdsignal.com (we will log you in with your WordPress.com account – magic ;)) .

– Create a new survey.

– In the Editor, choose “Single Mode” at the top left.

– Then create as many questions as you like and style your theme.

– When you are ready click on Sharing and copy the URL of your survey.

– Go back to your WordPress editor and paste the URL of your survey into your post

– Done! Your survey will appear in your post.

Here is a short demo video for you that shows you how it works in less than a minute:

Measure NPS

While we are driving our projects, working hard on our products, we all wonder: How are we doing? Are people satisfied with our service? Are we doing better since last month? 

Sometimes you want to measure your progress over time. Measure and monitor the customer satisfaction and growth potential of your product with a Net Promoter Score.

We have built a Gutenberg block for you that makes it easier than ever before to track your Net Promoter Score on WordPress. If you have previewed this post before, you might have seen the NPS question already in a modal window.

The moment you add the block, you are basically done. The design of the block is based on your site’s theme. You can still customize the styling of the block, or edit the questions, but that might not even be necessary.

To get the most out of your NPS data, it is important to show the question only to users that are already familiar with your service or product. You can configure the block to only show to repeat visitors. It’s more likely you will get feedback from someone who knows what they are talking about, and you can make sure new users are not interrupted during their first visit to your site.

After you publish the block go to the results page of the block and monitor your results. We have built a special results page for you to track your NPS score and to analyse any additional feedback.

We provide an analytics dashboard with our block that automatically calculates the Net Promoter Score for you in real-time and allows you to monitor your score over time. Are the differences geographic? Filter your results based on countries.

By the way, did you know you also can get email notifications or a ping in your Slack channel any time you get an NPS rating? Just click on the little “connect” button on your results page.

Here is a quick tutorial video on how it works.

%d bloggers like this: